A Mathematical Model for the Impact of 3HP and Social Programme Implementation on the Incidence and Mortality of Tuberculosis: Study in Brazil.

In this paper, we presented a mathematical model for tuberculosis with treatment for latent tuberculosis cases and incorporated social implementations based on the impact they will have on tuberculosis incidence, cure, and recovery. We incorporated two variables containing the accumulated deaths and active cases into the model in order to study the incidence and mortality rate per year with the data reported by the model. Our objective is to study the impact of social program implementations and therapies on latent tuberculosis in particular the use of once-weekly isoniazid-rifapentine for 12 weeks (3HP). The computational experimentation was performed with data from Brazil and for model calibration, we used the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) with a Bayesian approach. We studied the effect of increasing the coverage of social programs, the Bolsa Familia Programme (BFP) and the Family Health Strategy (FHS) and the implementation of the 3HP as a substitution therapy for two rates of diagnosis and treatment of latent at 1% and 5%. Based of the data obtained by the model in the period 2023-2035, the FHS reported better results than BFP in the case of social implementations and 3HP with a higher rate of diagnosis and treatment of latent in the reduction of incidence and mortality rate and in cases and deaths avoided. With the objective of linking the social and biomedical implementations, we constructed two different scenarios with the rate of diagnosis and treatment. We verified with results reported by the model that with the social implementations studied and the 3HP with the highest rate of diagnosis and treatment of latent, the best results were obtained in comparison with the other independent and joint implementations. A reduction of the incidence by 36.54% with respect to the model with the current strategies and coverage was achieved, and a greater number of cases and deaths from tuberculosis was avoided.

Modelling HIV/AIDS epidemiological complexity: A scoping review of Agent-Based Models and their application.

OBJECTIVE: To end the AIDS epidemic by 2030, despite the increasing poverty and inequalities, policies should be designed to deal with population heterogeneity and environmental changes. Bottom-up designs, such as the Agent-Based Model (ABM), can model these features, dealing with such complexity. HIV/AIDS has a complex dynamic of structural factors, risk behaviors, biomedical characteristics and interventions. All embedded in unequal, stigmatized and heterogeneous social structure. To understand how ABMs can model this complexity, we performed a scoping review of HIV applications, highlighting their potentialities. METHODS: We searched on PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus repositories following the PRISMA extension for scoping reviews. Our inclusion criteria were HIV/AIDS studies with an ABM application. We identified the main articles using a local co-citation analysis and categorized the overall literature aims, (sub)populations, regions, and if the papers declared the use of ODD protocol and limitations. RESULTS: We found 154 articles. We identified eleven main papers, and discussed them using the overall category results. Most studies model Transmission Dynamics (37/154), about Men who have sex with Men (MSM) (41/154), or individuals living in the US or South Africa (84/154). Recent studies applied ABM to model PrEP interventions (17/154) and Racial Disparities (12/154). Only six papers declared the use of ODD Protocol (6/154), and 34/154 didn't mention the study limitations. CONCLUSIONS: While ABM is among the most sophisticated techniques available to model HIV/AIDS complexity. Their applications are still restricted to some realities. However, researchers are challenged to think about social structure due model characteristics, the inclusion of these features is still restricted to case-specific. Data and computational power availability can enhance this feature providing insightful results.

Incorporating social determinants of health into the mathematical modeling of HIV/AIDS.

Currently, it is estimated that 37.6 million people are living with the HIV/AIDS virus worldwide, placing HIV/AIDS among the ten leading causes of death, mostly among low- and lower-middle-income countries. Despite the effective intervention in the prevention and treatment, this reduction did not occur equally among populations, subpopulations and geographic regions. This difference in the occurrence of the disease is associated with the social determinants of health (SDH), which could affect the transmission and maintenance of HIV. With the recognition of the importance of SDH in HIV transmission, the development of mathematical models that incorporate these determinants could increase the accuracy and robustness of the modeling. This article aims to propose a theoretical and conceptual way of including SDH in the mathematical modeling of HIV/AIDS. The theoretical mathematical model with the Social Determinants of Health has been developed in stages. For the selection of SDH that were incorporated into the model, a narrative literature review was conducted. Secondly, we proposed an extended model in which the population (N) is divided into Susceptible (S), HIV-positive (I), Individual with AIDS (A) and individual under treatment (T). Each SDH had a different approach to embedding in the model. We performed a calibration and validation of the model. A total of 31 SDH were obtained in the review, divided into four groups: Individual Factors, Socioeconomic Factors, Social Participation, and Health Services. In the end, four determinants were selected for incorporation into the model: Education, Poverty, Use of Drugs and Alcohol abuse, and Condoms Use. the section "Numerical simulation" to simulate the influence of the poverty rate on the AIDS incidence and mortality rates. We used a Brazilian dataset of new AIDS cases and deaths, which is publicly available. We calibrated the model using a multiobjective genetic algorithm for the years 2003 to 2019. To forecast from 2020 to 2035, we assumed two lines of poverty rate representing (i) a scenario of increasing and (ii) a scenario of decreasing. To avoid overfitting, we fixed some parameters and estimated the remaining. The equations presented with the chosen SDH exemplify some approaches that we can adopt when thinking about modeling social effects on the occurrence of HIV. The model was able to capture the influence of the employment/poverty on the HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality rates, evidencing the importance of SDOH in the occurrence of diseases. The recognition of the importance of including the SDH in the modeling and studies on HIV/AIDS is evident, due to its complexity and multicausality. Models that do not take into account in their structure, will probably miss a great part of the real trends, especially in periods, as the current on, of economic crisis and strong socioeconomic changes.

Is pregnancy associated with severe dengue? A review of data from the Rio de Janeiro surveillance information system.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a reportable disease in Brazil; however, pregnancy has been included in the application form of the Brazilian notification information system only after 2006. To estimate the severity of maternal dengue infection, the available data that were compiled from January 2007 to December 2008 by the official surveillance information system of the city of Rio de Janeiro were reviewed. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: During the study period, 151,604 cases of suspected dengue infection were reported. Five hundred sixty-one women in their reproductive age (15-49 years) presented with dengue infection; 99 (18.1%) pregnant and 447 (81.9%) non-pregnant women were analyzed. Dengue cases were categorized using the 1997 WHO classification system, and DHF/DSS were considered severe disease. The Mann-Whitney test was used to compare maternal age, according to gestational period, and severity of disease. A chi-square test was utilized to evaluate the differences in the proportion of dengue severity between pregnant and non-pregnant women. Univariate analysis was performed to compare outcome variables (severe dengue and non-severe dengue) and explanatory variables (pregnancy, gestational age and trimester) using the Wald test. A multivariate analysis was performed to assess the independence of statistically significant variables in the univariate analysis. A p-value<0.05 was considered statistically significant. A higher percentage of severe dengue infection among pregnant women was found, p = 0.0001. Final analysis demonstrated that pregnant women are 3.4 times more prone to developing severe dengue (OR: 3.38; CI: 2.10-5.42). Mortality among pregnant women was superior to non-pregnant women. CONCLUSION: Pregnant women have an increased risk of developing severe dengue infection and dying of dengue.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the factors associated with Leishmania infantum infection in dogs in Brazil.

The risk factors associated with canine visceral leishmaniosis (CVL) in Brazil are unclear and controversial. The objectives of this systematic review and meta-analysis were to identify the best evidence available in this field and to determine the gaps in existing knowledge. Literature searches were carried out using four databases, the reference lists within articles, and references provided by experts in the field. Theoretical discussions or separate and independent meta-analyses of p-values or of effect sizes were used to pool information about each variable. Thirty-six articles were selected for detailed review, including 31 cross-sectional, two ecological and three cohort studies. The variables showing significant association with CVL were short hair, purebred, peri-domestic restricted (as compared with domestic-restricted dogs), and presence of green areas adjacent to home. The occurrence of CVL was also associated with the presence of domestic fowl in the home environment, with free dogs (as compared with restrained dogs), with male gender and with dogs >1 or 2 years of age, although these associations were not statistically significant. Due to the small number of publications, consistent results could not be obtained concerning the role of other factors. Most studies did not describe the criteria of eligibility and the process of selection of participants in sufficient detail and employed only one diagnostic test as proof of infection. Few studies controlled for confounding variables. No statistical evidence of publication bias was detected, but a great deal of information contained in the primary articles was lost because the results were not adequately described. The results of this review contribute to a better understanding of CVL and should assist in optimizing the development and implementation of control policies. Continuous actions, prioritizing dogs at higher risk and areas with higher abundance of green vegetation, together with policies to promote responsible dog ownership are mandatory. Problems concerning study design and data analysis described in the present study need to be taken into consideration in future studies. These must follow clear procedures to select participants and utilize standardized, valid and reliable diagnostic methods. The development of multivariate models and the use of the STROBE statement for description of the results should also be encouraged. Further research should investigate the patterns identified and prioritize CVL-related factors that have not been fully recognized or elucidated. Finally, ecological and cohort studies of CVL and investigations in other countries of Latin America are urgently required.

Leishmania infection in a population of dogs: an epidemiological investigation relating to visceral leishmaniasis control.

Identification of factors associated with Leishmania infection in dogs is essential for targeting visceral leishmaniasis control actions. Thus, the present study analyzed some of these factors in a population of dogs in a Brazilian municipality, along with the limitations of control strategies implemented there. The association between the exposure variables and occurrences of infection was analyzed through logistic regression models. The disease control interventions were treated qualitatively. Out of the 755 animals examined, 13.6% (103/755) were seropositive. Of these, 23.3% (24/103) were asymptomatic and 76.7% (79/103) presented at least one clinical sign possibly associated with visceral leishmaniasis. With weak associations, purebred, shorthaired, over 5 years of age, male and large dogs were more prone to infection. The latter two variables formed the final regression model and the association with dog size was statistically significant. The control strategies developed presented limitations and a great number of seronegative dogs was culled. The data presented contribute towards better understanding of the dynamics of infection in canine visceral leishmaniasis and indicate that actions aimed towards adequate implementation of Visceral Leishmaniasis control program in Brazilian endemic areas should be prioritized.